山地电力架空线路运维质量的智能评估

山地电力架空线路大多沿山架设,穿越树竹林,周边的树竹生长缺陷引发短路故障频繁发生,造成用电客户的大量投诉,用户体验满意度下降,抢修抢险费用大幅度攀升,严重影响供电公司的信誉和售电收益.为了提升用电客户的满意度和供电公司的售电受益,采用主成分分析方法提取了山地电力架空线路通道运维质量的3个主要影响因素,它们分别是树竹生长缺陷数、缺陷的消除数和通道运维资金使用合理度.对树竹的生长规律建立一个预测模型,从而得到树竹生长缺陷数的一个预测,根据预测结果划拨架空线路所在供电所的运维资金,消除树竹生长的缺陷数,再用Logistic回归模型,构建架空线路通道运维质量智能评估模型,使供电公司对架空线路运维实现基于数据决策的模式,尽可能保证供电线路零故障运行.     

风险感知、保险认知与养殖户肉鸡保险购买意愿 ——基于肉鸡主产区的实证分析

风险管理是现代农业经营中的重要问题，随着农业市场化程度的加深，肉鸡产业面临着多种风险来源的冲击。农业保险作为有效的现代风险管理工具，在保障产业可持续发展、减少农户家庭收入波动方面发挥了重要作用。基于行为金融理论，利用江苏、安徽、山东、河南和辽宁5个肉鸡主产区的调研数据，运用有序Logit模型，分析风险感知与保险认知对养殖户保险购买意愿的影响，探讨两者间的交互影响机制。结果表明，尽管66.43%的农户认为肉鸡养殖保险在风险管控中的必要性较强，但86.43%的农户对保险内容的了解程度不高，仅有20.71%的农户具有强烈的保险购买意愿。生产风险感知对养殖户的保险购买意愿有促进作用。保险认知中，农户对保险重要性认知程度对其保险购买意愿有促进作用；农户对保险内容的了解程度对其保险购买意愿具有显著的抑制作用，主要由于当前肉鸡保险产品设计不合理，保险内容与农户需求不匹配，保险理赔效果不佳，对保险内容了解程度越高反而会降低农户的购买意愿。风险感知和保险认知间存在交互影响，即风险感知对农户保险购买意愿的提高效果会随着对保险重要性认知程度的提高而增强，随着对保险内容了解程度的提高而减弱。因此，政府应加强农户的风险管理教育与培训，提高其风险管理意识，同时完善和优化当前肉鸡保险的内容，使之与农户需求相匹配，并通过更广泛的宣传来提高养殖户对于肉鸡保险的认知，从而增强农户对保险的购买意愿。     

Evidence of clandestine harvest and failure of conservation policies for Argopecten purpuratus in the Rinconada Marine Reserve (Chile)

1. The study of Argopecten purpuratus reproduction, post‐larval settlement, stock size, and population size structure and shell growth was undertaken in the 2000s in the Rinconada marine reserve (Chile) to evaluate the effectiveness of scallop recruitment and self‐sustainability.
2. The results highlight strong seasonal and inter‐annual variations of environmental conditions and scallop gonadosomatic index, spat collection, benthic distribution, total abundance and population size structure.
3. The Von Bertalanffy growth parameters were L_∞ = 120.12 mm and K = 0.9681; commercial size would be reached in about 17.2 months in the bay. Substrate availability, meteorological conditions, hydrodynamics and illegal harvesting explain spatial and temporal variations in scallop distribution and abundance.
4. Recruitment strength depends on one main cohort from year to year. While recruitment made up 81% and 94% of total abundances in May 2002 and May 2003, respectively, there were no overall density‐dependent relationships between stock size and recruitment. Spawning asynchrony in the bay supports the hypothesis that multiple gamete releases form part of a reproductive strategy in response to environmental variability.
5. The massive disappearance of large‐sized scallops during the study periods was direct evidence of overfishing owing to clandestine harvesting within the marine reserve. The failure of current legislation, strategies and policies for scallop conservation requires new regulations to restore scallop stock size, maintain its reproductive performance and limit illegal harvesting in the Rinconada.
6. A scenario allowing harvesting regulated by stock‐dependent fishing quotas would more efficiently ensure stock recovery and self‐sustainability. The modalities of this new policy are discussed.

     

Temperature modulates liver lipid accumulation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) fed low dietary levels of long‐chain n‐3 fatty acids

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) were fed five graded levels of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA, 20:5n‐3) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n‐3), from 1.4 to 5.2% of total fatty acids (FA, 5–17 mg kg^?1 feed), and grew from ~160 g to ~3000 g, with the period from 1450 g onwards conducted both at 6 °C and at 12 °C. All fish appeared healthy, and there were no diet‐related differences in haematological or plasma parameters, as well as intestinal histological or gut microbiota analysis. Fish reared at 6 °C had higher accumulation of storage lipids in the liver compared to fish reared at 12 °C. Liver lipids also increased with decreasing dietary EPA + DHA at 6 °C, while there was no such relationship at 12 °C. Gene expression of SREBP1 and 2, LXR, FAS and CPT1 could not explain the differences in liver lipid accumulation. In liver polar lipids, DHA was found to be reduced when dietary EPA + DHA was <2.7% of FAs, while the level of EPA in the membranes was not affected. In conclusion, reducing dietary EPA + DHA from 5.2 to 1.4% of total FAs had a minor impact on fish health. Temperature was the factor that most affected the liver lipid accumulation, but there was also an interaction with dietary components.     

A century of fishery data documenting the collapse of smooth‐hounds (Mustelus spp.) in the Mediterranean Sea

1. Conservation and management of shark populations is increasingly becoming important in many marine regions, since there is a growing body of evidence showing that several species are threatened and continuing to decline because of unregulated fishing. Quantifying the extent of sharks' decline, the risk of species extinction, and the consequences for marine ecosystems have been challenging and controversial, mostly due to data limitations.
2. In this study, more than one century of multiple‐sources of bibliographic records on presence and frequency of occurrence of three species of commercial sharks, the smooth‐hounds Mustelus spp., in the Mediterranean Sea were compiled and analysed. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) were used to estimate the rate of change of two of these species, Mustelus mustelus and Mustelus punctulatus, in four Mediterranean regions.
3. Model results showed that smooth‐hounds have declined by 80–90% since the beginning of last century to almost disappear in a large part of their original distributional range during the 1980s and 1990s.
4. Based on modelling results, a revision of the current International Union for Conservation of Nature classification of Mediterranean smooth‐hounds would be advisable along with the application of urgent conservation measures.

     

重庆市荣昌区饮用水源地环境评估与管理对策

为保障城镇居民饮水安全,从水源地环境管理状况和水源地水质评价2个方面对环境状况进行评估。结果表明,虽然高升桥饮用水源地综合评估结果为优秀,水质状况较好,但在水源地管理方面仍存在较多问题。针对监测能力、监管能力不足和群众环保意识薄弱等问题,提出了相关对策。     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

Miang茶(一种泰国发酵型茶)及其饮食

Miang茶是泰国北部地区居民一类传统日常食用的腌茶,是一种将茶树鲜叶通过腌制发酵的方法制得的食品.文章回顾了该茶的历史,论述了该茶的采摘与加工工艺,简述了亚洲相关国家如中国、日本、老挝、缅甸等地的腌茶,论述了Miang茶在泰国北部悠久的历史和重要的经济价值.探讨了这种天然的发酵类茶的化学成分和微生物种类及相关菌群对人体健康的益处.最后论述了该茶所面临的挑战,以期为Miang茶的进一步深入研究提供指导.     

An assessment of carcass counting surveys with increasing time lapse following a simulated fish kill on a small upland stream

A simulated fish kill was conducted on a small upland stream in Northern Ireland by planting out hatchery‐produced brown trout Salmo trutta L. carcasses of various size categories. Standard, post‐fish kill, assessment walkover surveys were conducted over time intervals to determine the number of carcasses visible. The sample variance between individual surveyors was generally low, with good agreement between the observed counts for the three, discrete, size fractions of fish up to 72 hr after the simulated fish kill. Despite low discharge rates, shallow water and good accessibility to the experimental stream, only 52% of the small category fish (<8 cm L_F) were recorded 4 hr after the start of the simulated fish kill. Larger carcasses (>17 cm L_F) were more visible, and >90% were detected 48 hr after the start of the simulated fish kill. After 96 hr, all size fractions of carcasses had reduced significantly, and the variability between replicate surveys increased markedly.     

Effects of biodegradable mulch on soil quality

Biodegradable plastic films are desirable alternatives to traditional black polyethylene plastic for use as mulches in agroecosystems. Efforts are ongoing to engineer biodegradable plastic mulches that could be incorporated into the soil at the end of the crop season, and decomposed by microorganisms, ultimately to CO₂, H₂O, and biomass. Whether changes in soil quality occur during or following biodegradation is unknown. An 18-month study evaluated the effects on soil quality following burial of four potentially biodegradable mulches and a no mulch control in high tunnel and open field tomato production systems across three geographically distinct locations (Knoxville, TN; Lubbock, TX; Mount Vernon, WA). The mulch treatments included: two starch-based mulches (BioAgri^® Ag-Film and BioTelo Agri); one experimental 100% polylactic acid mulch (Spunbond-PLA-10); one cellulose-based mulch (WeedGuardPlus; positive control); and a negative control (no mulch). The soil management assessment framework (SMAF) was used to calculate a soil quality index (SQI) according to five dynamic soil properties: microbial biomass carbon, β-glucosidase, electrical conductivity, total organic carbon (TOC), and pH. Within the 18-month evaluation period, the effects of the biodegradable mulches on the SQI were minor, and dependent upon production system and time of incubation at all locations. In general, the SQI was higher in the high tunnel systems for some of the mulch treatments at Knoxville and Lubbock but the opposite was true at Mount Vernon. By the final sampling at 18 months, the SQI was lowest for WeedGuardPlus at Lubbock and Mount Vernon but at Knoxville, the WeedGuardPlus SQI was not significantly different from the no mulch control. Of the five SMAF indicators evaluated, soil microbial biomass and β-glucosidase activity were the most responsive to mulch and production systems, supporting the use of these variables as soil quality indicators for short-term changes due to this agricultural management practice.